NORDIC WEST OFFICE LAUNCHES FINLAND SCENARIOS PROJECT

If something cannot last forever, it will stop.

Stein’s law is topical at a time when the response to globalization has surprised almost everyone. What to do when linear models of future prospects are performing poorly, but something needs to be done to avoid surprises?

Scenarios.

Nordic West Office organized a kick-off event for its Finland scenarios project on November 20, 2019, where high-level speakers painted their own outlooks on Finland and shared their experiences from the world of scenarios. Anu Partanen, Senior Advisor at Nordic West Office, hosted the event.

Jorma Ollila, Chairman of Nordic West Office, and Emilia Kullas, EVAs Director, discussed the added value of scenarios. Scenarios are exceptionally well suited as a framework for the near future (2-20 years), which is also the most challenging time frame, as well as for a time when uncertainty has grown to such an extent that linear models do not work in detecting events that are not probable, but should they happen, have a significant impact on ones business.

In times of uncertainty, it is important that companies have stories about how the future can be shaped and what alternatives companies have, to succeed in different operating environments. Discussions and stories must extend to the entire line organization and not remain a hobby of the business planning department.

In his speech, Björn Wahlroos, Chairman of both Sampo plc and UPM-Kymmene Corporation, emphasized the importance of competition as a force for development in Finland. We must not give in to the difficult realities of economic policy; Finland needs new innovations and creative power that will make Finland's future look brighter, even as the rest of the world storms.

Risto Siilasmaa, Chairman of Nokia, whose triangle of 1) entrepreneurial leadership, 2) innovation and 3) smart regulation, should serve as a reference not only for Finland but also for Europe to create a business environment that creates opportunities for scalable technologies and new technology companies.

Anna Kontula, a member of parliament (Left), stressed the boundaries set by the environment for any future scenarios. We must be prepared for times of zero growth if the survival of our civilization requires it. Audience comments highlighted the unsustainable nature and danger of a zero growth scenario, in which frustrated citizens suffering in a spiraling economy would be likely to vote for populists such as Trump, who again, would not make policies suited for the environment. Kontula emphasized that even in difficult times, society needs to guarantee good conditions for life and rely on the values of a welfare society in order to succeed.

Discussions will continue at the next workshop in December (10.12.) when values and their impact on Finland's future are on the agenda.